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Dec 24, 2012
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thursday night the house republicans couldn't whip up votes for their own fiscal cliff plan. speaker boehner says they'll be going on vacation without legislation. everyone assumes the fiscal cliff negotiations are done for the moment. suppose the newfound bears conventional wisdom is wrong. suppose if we don't go over the fiscal cliff or at the very least we get resolved with minimum destruction as i talked about at the top of the show. my super bowl see you in new orleans solution. i'm not saying this will happen. i'm saying this positive scenario is very much on the table. it has to be considered. and in that rosy okay things are all right scenario, good things could happen to our stock market in 2013. let's say you're an optimist that believes the fiscal cliff will be resolved and they rise above. what's the best way to play a fabulous bull market that some think could be unleashed? simple. assuming that everything goes right, the best proxy for the market in 2013 is the blackstone group. the big publicly traded asset firm. why blackstone? a company that i wasn't keen on.
thursday night the house republicans couldn't whip up votes for their own fiscal cliff plan. speaker boehner says they'll be going on vacation without legislation. everyone assumes the fiscal cliff negotiations are done for the moment. suppose the newfound bears conventional wisdom is wrong. suppose if we don't go over the fiscal cliff or at the very least we get resolved with minimum destruction as i talked about at the top of the show. my super bowl see you in new orleans solution. i'm not...
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Dec 24, 2012
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to avoid going over the fiscal cliff. dagen: with the president and congress on a christmas break, will they miss their year end deadline? peter barnes? peter: just got a note from one of the speaker's spokes people he said the speaker and the president have not spoken since that phone call on friday. all eyes are now on the senate when it returns on thursday to try to get a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. this past friday before the president left for his family vacation in hawaii, he proposed a limited measure to avoid all of the cliff when speaker boehner scuttled his plan b, the president wants to extend the bush tax cuts now for the middle class and try to avoid some of these deep spending cuts on january 1st. a white house spokesperson says today that staff discussions continue between the administration and the hill. in july you may recall the senate democrats passed an extension of the middle class tax cuts if r a year at a -- for a year at a cost of 157 billion. that bill also patched the alternative minimum tax
to avoid going over the fiscal cliff. dagen: with the president and congress on a christmas break, will they miss their year end deadline? peter barnes? peter: just got a note from one of the speaker's spokes people he said the speaker and the president have not spoken since that phone call on friday. all eyes are now on the senate when it returns on thursday to try to get a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. this past friday before the president left for his family vacation in hawaii, he proposed...
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Dec 26, 2012
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ed, let's say for argument sake we go flying off the fiscal cliff. what happens to housing? >> i think housing to some extent goes off with it. we'll end up with a recession and that will dampen homebuyers enthusiasm for buying homes and we'll see a downtick in house prices and uptick in foreclosures. tracy: that is good news. let's go glass half-full. they fix this ink it. fiscal cliff solved. housing market, what, what's the big thing that you think 2013 will bring? it is the year of rental. of new construction. what should we expect to see if all goes well in washington? >> what we should expect to see is a continuation of the recovery which started this past year. you just reported that house prices are up about 4%. i'm expecting that house prices in 2013 will be up 3 to 4%. that is actually, a nice solid, steady recovery. you don't want it taking off and having increases of eight, 10, 15% because they're not sustainable. the best we can hope for is a good solid recovery. have some real positives. fundamentals are strong. house prices are down. affordability is up. rents
ed, let's say for argument sake we go flying off the fiscal cliff. what happens to housing? >> i think housing to some extent goes off with it. we'll end up with a recession and that will dampen homebuyers enthusiasm for buying homes and we'll see a downtick in house prices and uptick in foreclosures. tracy: that is good news. let's go glass half-full. they fix this ink it. fiscal cliff solved. housing market, what, what's the big thing that you think 2013 will bring? it is the year of...
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Dec 26, 2012
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. >>> coming up on "closing bell" five days until we fall off the so-called fiscal cliff. can lawmakers get their act together in the meantime? we will hear from former vermont governor howard dean, former white house economist, jared bernstein and a host of others who will weigh in. >>> don't look now but obama care taxes may just be getting started. will congress take aim at employer-sponsored health insurance? we will look at that and aetna's ceo will weigh in. >>> it's getting messy with this storm making its way across the country. now it's on the east coast. we have the latest on the nor'easter and how it could affect your money. mandy is kind of to stick around, stay late for us. she'll be with me at the top of the hour. see you guys then. >> you twisted my arm. >>> meantime, some signs of life in the housing market. the s & p home price index rose 4.3% year over year, the biggest increase in two and a half years. the index was down .1% month over month but that is likely seasonal so let's ignore it. all in all, no doubt housing making a big recovery in much of amer
. >>> coming up on "closing bell" five days until we fall off the so-called fiscal cliff. can lawmakers get their act together in the meantime? we will hear from former vermont governor howard dean, former white house economist, jared bernstein and a host of others who will weigh in. >>> don't look now but obama care taxes may just be getting started. will congress take aim at employer-sponsored health insurance? we will look at that and aetna's ceo will weigh in....
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Dec 26, 2012
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five days left to revert the fiscal cliff. now that plan b is that, will there be a plan c or f for failing? peter: president obama expecting to arrive in d.c. tomorrow. white house says they will let us know if there is any update in the talks for congressional leadership. the leader's office is me no news to report. as of now, we are still headed for the cliff. on january 1, the nation faces a $5 trillion tax increase over ten years to the expiration of the bush tax cuts. the lapse of the bush tax cut would mean the top would go to 39.6. tax rates would also go all for lower income earners. the maximum lowest rate going back to 15%. four investors, capital gains rates would revert to 20%. dagen: i will not utter that word. thank you for that. growing pessimism when it comes to the club. some americans say we will get a deal. let's bring in ted kaufman. he is joining us from wilmington tell me what happens if we go over the cliff? >> i have been saying for a while we will go over the cliff. republican members in the house hav
five days left to revert the fiscal cliff. now that plan b is that, will there be a plan c or f for failing? peter: president obama expecting to arrive in d.c. tomorrow. white house says they will let us know if there is any update in the talks for congressional leadership. the leader's office is me no news to report. as of now, we are still headed for the cliff. on january 1, the nation faces a $5 trillion tax increase over ten years to the expiration of the bush tax cuts. the lapse of the...
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Dec 27, 2012
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on the fiscal cliff. republicans have been resisting that by announcing the debt ceiling limit will be held on monday, ratchets up the pressure to include the debt ceiling piece in the final package, whatever that may be, but still not clear, carl, there is going to be a final package of any kind. one quick note, we saw the realism. pact in the real world of the debt situation. treasury announcing yesterday it has suspended the sale of state and local government securities, government series securities. so already, they are doing some maneuvering here financially to try to avoid that debtly limit. the treasury secretary says he doesn't know how much wiggle room they are going to have, given that all the fiscal cliff uncertainty is out there. >> eamon, on this idea that the house members get called back with 48 hours' notice. traders are looking for that headline if it happens almost that bleed out there or procedural moment where that is announced, so to speak? >> a good question. i have been in touch wit
on the fiscal cliff. republicans have been resisting that by announcing the debt ceiling limit will be held on monday, ratchets up the pressure to include the debt ceiling piece in the final package, whatever that may be, but still not clear, carl, there is going to be a final package of any kind. one quick note, we saw the realism. pact in the real world of the debt situation. treasury announcing yesterday it has suspended the sale of state and local government securities, government series...
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Dec 24, 2012
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they're so worried about everybody in the fiscal cliff. they're obviously worried about how a & p is going to affect people, marginal tax rates, the middle class. good. people need to be worried about the middle class but exactly how worried are they? where there is a will there is a way. there was a will in 1895, a will three years ago. yeah, 2009. but obviously there is a whole lot more talk than action because, let's see, i hear crickets or i hear some hula music but i certainly don't hear the ruffling of papers as any bill is getting passed. so i guess i will leave on this note on christmas eve. you know, i send my best wishes to all the military that are out of the country protecting us and making sure they secure the rights for every american, and i say to congress and the president, if you really were so concerned, you could have done a repeat performance. obviously obama care is signature legislation. cornhuskers, a lot of back room deals. but after 25 days of straight debating, they did pass it on christmas eve. i guess this bill
they're so worried about everybody in the fiscal cliff. they're obviously worried about how a & p is going to affect people, marginal tax rates, the middle class. good. people need to be worried about the middle class but exactly how worried are they? where there is a will there is a way. there was a will in 1895, a will three years ago. yeah, 2009. but obviously there is a whole lot more talk than action because, let's see, i hear crickets or i hear some hula music but i certainly don't...
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Dec 26, 2012
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i think that's a bigger item than the fiscal cliff. the long-term question about taxes is clearly the mortgage deduction. given they haven't even got to the headline items for the fiscal cliff, they won't get to the mortgage deduction for a few weeks, if not longer. >> finally, david, shadow inventory. we hear a lot about it, talk a lot about it. it doesn't seem to be the concern some anticipated, at least when we go back to 2012, 2011 to current. >> to some extent on a national basis, i think the shadow inventory story is a little bit overdone. i think it's gradually being worked off. foreclosures have been -- or the number of homes in foreclosure have been declining in the last several months and i think are likely to continue to decline. localized areas it can be a big problem, but nationally, i think it's a little bit overdone and a bit overstated. >> david, we're going to leave it there. david blitzer, s&p's managing director of the s&p 500 index committee. >> thank you. >> who will be celebrating the day after christmas? the bull
i think that's a bigger item than the fiscal cliff. the long-term question about taxes is clearly the mortgage deduction. given they haven't even got to the headline items for the fiscal cliff, they won't get to the mortgage deduction for a few weeks, if not longer. >> finally, david, shadow inventory. we hear a lot about it, talk a lot about it. it doesn't seem to be the concern some anticipated, at least when we go back to 2012, 2011 to current. >> to some extent on a national...
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Dec 26, 2012
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. >> there's the looming fiscal cliff and session of the senate set for tomorrow. the house has nothing on its schedule for the week but members have been told they could be called back with 48 hours notice. meantime, president obama going to fly back from vacation in hawaii today. john joins us in washington. john, is this trip by the president more than just window dressing? is there a chance he's here to actually do something? >> first of all, merry christmas to everybody and happy holidays. i think this is not window dressing. there is a chance they will negotiate a deal, most like l l mini deal that will temporarily resolve the issue. there is a chance something will get done and the chairman of the budget committee is holding out hope to do that. he's come back because the president doesn't want to be out in hawaii vacationing while members of congress decide up or down on a deal. >> it will be left in the -- he left in the first place knowing he would have to come back. not like he didn't know this problem existed on sunday? >> right. but he wanted to celebr
. >> there's the looming fiscal cliff and session of the senate set for tomorrow. the house has nothing on its schedule for the week but members have been told they could be called back with 48 hours notice. meantime, president obama going to fly back from vacation in hawaii today. john joins us in washington. john, is this trip by the president more than just window dressing? is there a chance he's here to actually do something? >> first of all, merry christmas to everybody and...